The narrative around wealthy individuals leaving the UK has accelerated sharply this year. Headlines suggest a surge in departures, political debate has intensified, and the upcoming 26th November Budget has raised fresh questions about what may come next.

But behind the noise, what do the numbers actually tell us?

The scale of outflow: What the data shows

Recent private reports and government data suggest a noticeable uptick in individuals, both wealthy and otherwise, leaving the UK in recent years. Yet, official migration and tax residency figures for the non-dom community have not fully reflected this trend, likely because the impact of recent tax regime changes is only beginning to materialise.

• Henley & Partners suggests 16,500 millionaires may leave the UK in 2025, with an associated wealth outflow of approximately $91.8bn. These projections are not official statistics, but they indicate the scale some analysts believe is possible.
• New ONS data, as quoted in the Telegraph, shows an unprecedented rise in British nationals moving abroad, with 257,000 leaving in the year to December 2024, and nearly one million departing since 2021. Not all of these individuals will be HNW/UHNW, of course, and net immigration was still 345,000 in 2024.
• HMRC’s most recent non-dom data confirms 9,500 individuals stopped claiming non-dom status in the 2023/24 tax year (versus 9,800 in 2022/23). Meanwhile, there were 9,100 newly arrived non-dom taxpayers in the 23/24 tax year, (down from 14,200 arrivals in 22/23), which equates to a marginal decline of 1% to 83,000 total non-doms. Comparatively, there was a 7% increase in non-dom taxpayers from 21/22 to 22/23. 
• The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated in their January 2025 paper that of the estimated 83,000 non-doms (23/24 tax year), 21,900 will be affected by the non-dom tax reforms, of which 1,200 would be likely to exit the UK (or UK tax residency) after 2025. This equates to 1.5% of the total non-dom population. While they noted the behavioural response is highly uncertain, their assumption was that most non-doms will stay due to personal and professional ties. However, some MPs have since requested the OBR take another look at this data as they feel it underestimates the situation.

A number of indicators point to the largest period of (U)HNW outflow the UK has recorded in modern times. Still, these departures may remain modest as a percentage of total (U)HNW in the UK. If Henley & Partners’ analysis proves correct, 16,500 migrating millionaires would represent 0.55% of the UK’s estimated three-million millionaire population.

Factors influencing wealth mobility

While individual motivations vary, several structural and policy shifts are repeatedly cited across industry reports. The following drivers create the conditions for what some describe as an unprecedented wealth exit from the UK.

• Major reforms to the UK’s non-dom regime. The abolition of the historic framework in April 2025 removed long-standing incentives that had anchored internationally mobile wealth in the UK.
• Tax changes introduced in late 2024, including increases to capital gains and inheritance tax, have made the environment materially less favourable for some high-net-worth households.
• Closure of investor-friendly immigration routes, such as the Tier 1 Investor Visa in 2022, removed a pathway that historically drew global wealth to the UK. 
• Global competition for mobile capital. Wealthy individuals are gravitating towards countries that offer long-term tax stability and predictable residency rules, just as the UK becomes more restrictive. 

Henley & Partners project a net inflow of +9,800 millionaires into the UAE, likely owing to its zero personal income tax and Golden Residency Schemes. The USA remains attractive for its capital markets and favourable tax treatment, capturing an estimated +7,500 millionaires. Following the introduction of a flat annual tax on foreign income, Italy is also a top destination for (U)HNWs, with +3,600 millionaires moving there. One caveat: these are independent estimates, not official migration data, and should be viewed accordingly. Even so, with the UK signalling further reform, these destinations may present the certainty and competitiveness many (U)HNWs prioritise, creating a strong push-and-pull dynamic.

The upcoming budget: What may happen next

The 26th November Budget is emerging as a significant moment in the trajectory of UK wealth mobility. The primary area of scrutiny was the potential introduction of a UK “exit tax”, an idea which has now been scrapped after concerns it would accelerate HNW departures and undermine the UK’s innovation and investment base.

As of the 13th November, the Telegraph reports that the Chancellor has also ruled out an income tax increase in this upcoming Budget. But uncertainty is still high; with government borrowing costs rising amid questions about how fiscal targets will now be met, the implicit assumption is that other tax measures – e.g. capital gains tax, inheritance tax reforms, mansion tax – might still be coming.

The current reality 

While definitive, government-verified statistics on (U)HNW migration will take time to emerge, the available evidence points to a clear trend: the UK is experiencing an uptick in the departure and slowing of immigration of wealthy individuals, driven by tax reforms, policy repositioning and global competition for mobile capital. 

Forecasts vary, and some are based on projections rather than audited data, but they do indicate a shift in sentiment and behaviour. Nonetheless, per Henley & Partners’ indications, the proportion of (U)HNWIs set to leave the UK will hopefully remain a relatively small percentage of total UK wealth.

With the 26th November Budget approaching, the trajectory of this trend may soon spike, but only time will tell. For now, the data paints a picture of elevated, but still evolving, outflow as the UK reshapes its fiscal and policy environment.

Pleasingly, the UK Wealth Management market remains a very active, robust and exciting place to work.  We would welcome any views or comments on what readers are seeing at banks, wealth management firms or other institutions.